BGN Entrepreneur » economic recovery

Production Pick-up Raises Recovery Hopes

Sky — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:13:16 +0000

The prognosis for the UK’s economic recovery was given a welcome fillip by two lots of unexpectedly good supply side data.
First of all, the services sector survey for July indicated that the business activity is growing at the fastest rate for 17 months. The Purchasing Managers’ Index indicated that new business is at a sixteen-month high and the rate of decline in outstanding business was at its lowest for 15 months. Secondly, the manufacturing PMI also indicated that output was better than expected in June, rising by 0.4% month-on-month, which is the best performance ever since the start of 2008.
After discouraging GDP figures last month revealed the economy fared more poorly than had been expected in the second quarter for the year, these two surveys will help boost hopes that UK’s economy can return to growth in the third three months.

Business is Not Out of the Woods Yet

Sky — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 23:30:59 +0000

There were signs that the economy had turned a corner after a leading think-tank declared the recession over a number of big-money deals boosted sentiment. However, there were also some stark reminders that business was not out of the woods yet.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that it believed that the worst of the downturn was behind us after it released upbeat estimates showing that growth in GDP had resumed in April and May. The institute’s assessment came after official figures revealed the first gains in manufacturing output for 14 months.
Heritage Oil agreed a deal with General Energy, a Turkish business, that will create a £3.5 billion FTSE 100 oil group.
BlackRock, the US money manager, said that it would buy Barclays Global Investors for $13.5 billion in a deal that will create the world’s biggest asset manager.
Investment banking advisers to the Treasury were examining the feasibility of selling Northern Rock, the nationalised lender, back to the City in the Autumnm and the City speculated whether Thomas Cook, the travel group, may soon be in play after Arcandor, the German retailor that holds a 52.b per cent stake in the FTSE 100 group, applied for bankruptcy after being refused state aid.
A deal for Setanra Sports, the troubled pay-TV froup, also looked on the cards after Len Blavatnik, the Russian-born oligarch, offered to buy a 51 per cent stake for £20 million.
West Bromwich Building Society took a step back from the brink of collapse after agreeing a debt-for-equity swap deal with its bondholders.
However, Llyods Banking Group said that it would close all 164 branches of Cheltenham & Gloucester and shut other parts of its mortgage business with the loss of 1660 jobs.
Cabin crew at British Airways were fretting after the airline told them that it wanted to cut 2000 jobs, leading to fears that the carrier could be hit by a summer of strikes.

Scrambling for Green Shoots‏

Sky — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:00:16 +0000

Over the past few days, the City has echoed to the sound of frantic scribbling as economists have scrambled to update their forecasts on everything from growth to gold. On the whole, the updates have been upbeat. The recent run of more encouraged this week with news of an increase in industrial production in April, more optimistic signs from the housing market and slightly less gloomy noises from employers on job cuts.
On the back of the industrial output figures, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research declared that the economy probably started growing again in April and May. Many, if not most, City economists now agree that output has bottomedout and will grow in the third quarter.If true, this would mean that the forecasts Alistair Darling made in the Budget of a return to growth at the end of the year’ forecasts that were widely derided at the time, were actually too cautious. Whether the recovery will last in another question. Most dramatic have been the revised predictions for house prices.
The dismsl crowd at Capital Economics have slashed their forecast for this year from a 20 per cent fall to just 10 per cent, although they still think there will be a peak-to-trough drop of 40 per cent, it will just take longer to get there. But not all the revised forecasts have been good news. The steady rise in the oil now above $65 to $85 and says prices could touch $100 by the end of next year.
The Chancelloe this week singled out rising oil prices, along with the failure of other European countries to clean up their banks, as serious threats to the recovery. It is said that the oil price had ‘the potential to be a huge problem. Economists argue about how much impact a big rise in the oil price has on the British economy these days, although they agree that it’s much less than it used too be. It’s also less important than for the US. The doubling of the price in the past four months has put paid to hopes that British households will see further, there will be fears that those bills could start rising again, though it takes some time for a rise in the oil price to feed through into long-term gas prices. The strengthening of sterling has also taken some of the sting out of the rise in the oil price in dollar terms. Of course, a cntinued rise in oil price will be unhelpful, but it is hard to see it as one of the biggest threats to recovery. It is only to be expected perhaps that the Chancellor would focus on the oil price and the state of European banks, for which he bears no possible blame, rather than factors closer to home.
As the Bank of England’s Paul Fisher said that the biggest concern is the state of Britain’s banks and their ability to step up lending. Here too, though, the recent evidence has been mildly encouraging. Surveys by the Bank and the CBI suggest that credit conditions have at least stabilised and some small company adviser tell me they have improved in the past couple of months. If this continues, the City scribblers might have to get their pencils out again.

Bottom of the Market

Sky — Sat, 16 May 2009 18:37:50 +0000

Some hope for those looking for signs of recovery in the economy. A snapshot survey by Thomson Reuters of 27 sell-side traders found 52% are bullish on shares over the next 12 months. More than 40% believe that the markets have bottomed out with a further third predicting that it will bottom this year.
Another survey of 25 buy-side and sell-side traders suggests that investors’ attitudes towards Russia have changed radically in the past year. The survey found that 56% were cautious about Russia and 20% bearish—the price of oil and poor corporate governmance were of particular concern. Last year, 98% of traders were bullish.

Adopt Pay Day Loan to Handle Short-term Cash Flow Problem

Sky — Thu, 14 May 2009 00:16:14 +0000

It comes on the back of data this week which suggests the UK economy may be showing signs of improvement. The Centre for Economics and Business Research said mortgage approvals in the UK could start to increase in the summer.
However, despite of these good signs of improvement, the current economic condition remains tough for many households. Low interest rates could mean that prices will only fall a little further before beginning to rise again.
At this special time before recovery of the entire global economy, many people still need small amount of money in order to deal with short-term cash flow problems. No Fax Loans or Pay Day Loan could be among the effective financing options.

Worst of the Recession May End

Sky — Tue, 12 May 2009 21:02:46 +0000

After influential organisations and investors announced that there were clear signs of economic recovery, hopes are mouting that the worst of the recession is over.
The organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said there were indications that UK was experiencing a pause in the economic slowdown. There are signs that the worst of the global recession may be over.
The multibillionaire investor George Soros echoed the positive forecast, indicating that a meltdown of the world’s financial system had been averted. President of the European Central Bank—Jean-Claude Trichet, said that some countries had already moved beyond the worst of their recessions.
Activity in the UK housing market has also picked up. Eastate agents said that there were more nquireis last month from the new buyers, who were tempted out by the low prices and good weather. The up beat mood was also evident on the high street, where like-for-like sales jumped by 4.6% in April. At the same time, Chinese central bankers also indicated that their efforts to boost economic growth were working.
More tentative signs of economic recovery are expected to be revealed soon.

UK’s Economy Showing Signs of Improvement

Sky — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 01:23:30 +0000

According to leading experts, the economic downturn in the UK is showing signs of easing.
Organisation for Economic Development predicts that the situation in big exporting nations such as the US, Japan, Germany and Russia is worse than for the UK. OED’s index of leading indicators for UK showed only a small dip in February. In some countries like Italy and France, there are even signals suggesting a possible recovery on the way. Meanwhile, the Paris-based group’s index measures economic data suggests a trend of activity in the months ahead.
The housing market are showing signs of improvement, with the mortgage approvals starting to increase and interest rates fell.
Figures also suggest that though there is a slump in demand in overseas markets, UK’s exporters have cashed in on the fall in sterling’s international value, boosting sales last month by 2.5%. The surge helped slash £500million from the nation’s trade deficit.

Bernanke Raises Hopes for Recovery Next Year

Sky — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 21:51:01 +0000

The Federal Reserve chairman—Ben Bernanke, said that the recession would continue throughout 2009 but 2010 would be a year of recovery.
These comments helped buoy global stock markets. The Dow Jones industrial average opened up 63.72 points at 7300.28. In early afternoon, the FTSE 100 climbed 63.08 points to 3816.76; while Germany’s Dax index was up 85 points to 4038.67 and France’s CAC index rose 60.46 points to 2766.09. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.78%, continuing a relatively strong run last week, and Hong Kong was 0.96% higher in the afternoon trading. But this remarks were followed by new figures that heighened worries over another significant drop in US GDP in the first three months of 2009.
It has been warned that the biggest risk to an upturn would be whether there was sufficient political to continue to try to mend the financial system. Fears have grown after unemployment has risen, in spite of the repeated intervention of the US Government in helping beleaguered big companies, like AIG.