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The Mayor, Boris Johnson, has declared that the number of financiers who may leave London as a result of the Government’s windfall tax on bonuses may be far larger than previously thought, perhaps as many as 9000 people. He has written to the Commons Treasury Select Committee to ask it to bring forwards its inquiry on the new tax and other measures, at present it is set to do so only after the election.
Mr. Johnson is right to be worried. His warnings come in the wake of last week’s rumors that Goldman Sachs could be on the point of relocating from London; there are rumors, too, about JP Morgan. Such an outcome would be disastrous, not just for the City but for the wider economy, which gains infinitely more from tax revenues from financial services than it will do from the tax on bonuses, even if that raises £5 billion.
In the run-up to an election, no one wants to be seen as a friend of the bankers. Certainly the Tories don’t, which may be why George Osborne has refused to make clear that the Tories would not repeat the windfall tax. But an instinct for revenge should not blind us to the reality that we stand to lose a great deal if financial institutions reduce their London presence. Few are likely to leave entirely but it is within the bounds of possibility that some would downgrade their operations. A tax regime that is unstable and unpredictable might make them do so.
Financial operations are highly mobile. London does have a unique concentration of skills and traditions which make it a strong international financial centre but we should not delude ourselves that our position is impregnable. There are other centers, such as Geneva or Zurich, which are anxious to bolster their own standing; operations that leave London could go there.
The Government’s bonus tax was a highly political measure. France followed Godon Brown’s lead but it is the only country to do so. Such taxes serve to give the impression that London is not a welcoming environment for banks. Instead, the Chancellor and his Tory counterpart should be going out of their way to make clear that the windfall tax really was a one-off. The goose that still lays golden eggs could yet fly the nest.

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The Government is giving the Trades Union Congress millions of pounds from its foreign aid budget to pay for the education of British trade unionists and to support advocacy work in Britain.
The payments by the Department for International Development, which include a £2.4 million grant, are evidence of a deepening relationship between the DfID and the TUC, which is being urged to help the government department to set development priorities.
The new grant, for 2009-11, is made under the Partnership Program Arrangement. The PPA is a system of funding set up to support dedicated aid charities, such as Oxfam or ActionAid, which have a track record in international development.
The TUC has been offered a PPA despite an independent review of the DfID’s development advocacy work that examined the department’s relationship with the TUC and found “little evidence regarding the effectiveness of the individual projects”. The money awarded under the PPA, of which the TUC has already received an installment of £900000, is not confined to work in developing countries. The memorandum of understanding between the DfID and the TUC indicates that among its key aims is advocacy, specifically “activities to build support for development in the UK that are likely to contribute to a reduction in poverty in other countries”.
According to International Policy Network, which today publishes a report on the TUC’s relationship with the DfID, A Closer Union, the labour organization has benefited from three grants from the taxpayer ever since 2003 totaling £3.6 million, including the current PPA. The earlier payments were intended to raise awareness within the British union movement of international development issues.
A key purpose of the deepening relationship between the DfID and the TUC is to share strategic objectives and bring the two organizations closer together at a policy. The latter emerges in the Performance Framework of the PPA, a document agreed by the department and the TUC that lists the strategic objectives of the grant and criteria for assessing whether they have been accomplished. The document’s preamble state: “The TUC is the voice of Britain at work”, and that it is a “key influencer in British society”.
Two objectives relate to activity in developing countries, including raising the capacity of foreign trade unions to enforce workers’ rights. The other two objectives relate to advocacy and policy-making, such as Greater British trade union membership, understanding of and commitment to sustainable development and strengthened UK and developing country trade union international development policy.

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Ferrero moved a step closer to gatecrashing the £10.5 billion bid battle for Cadbury last night after the Italian chocolate maker lined up a bumper loan that could be used to back an offer for the British confectionery group.
Ferrero, which makes Nutella spreads and Kinder chocolate eggs, is talking to the Italian bank Mediobanca about taking on a $4.5 billion loan that would be syndicated to at least four other big lenders.
The loan would be structured in two tranches and would most likely be extended to a new company controlled by Ferrero. Other banks considering taking part in the loan are thought to include domestic players Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit.
Ferrero, which in November said it was considering its options over a potential bid for Cadbury, has until February 2 to table a formal offer. Cadbury is fending off a hostile cash and shares bid from Kraft of the US. It has reportedly dismissed the bid as “derisory” but it remains the only formal offer on the table.
Ferrero has been tipped as more likely to join forces with another bidder, such as Hershey of the US, rather than try to mount a counter-bid for Cadbury on its own. The difficulties of agreeing partnerships and lining up funding were last week said to be dampening both companies’ interest in launching a rival bid, but the emergence of the loan for Ferrero suggests it is still a possibility.
The takeover battle for Cadbury, which has been raging since Kraft made its first informal approach in September, is at a turning point. This week, Cadbury will publish its final defense against Kraft’s bid, which is expected to focus on the American company’s poor share price performance since its demerger from the Philip Morris tobacco giant in 2001. Kraft shares, worth $31 at the time of the demerger, were changing hands for just above $27 last week.
Cadbury will also this week publish its final results for the past year, which are expected to show encouraging growth in sales and profits. Cadbury has already said it is confident that it can increase its annual revenues by between 5% and 7%. It is also aiming to increase profit margins to at least 16% by 2013. Double-digit dividend growth is promised. Cadbury shares closed last week at 778p, higher than the current value of Kraft’s offer, with shareholders making it clear that the American group must bid at least 800p a share for any chance of success.
Kraft has already improved its offer once, increasing the cash component of its bid to 360p a share last week and is thought to be looking at ways of raising the offer further. However, it has come under pressure, not least from Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway investment group is its largest shareholder, not to overpay.
Kraft is expected to wait until late next week before making its move. It has until January 19 to present its best bid, with a deadline for acceptances in early February. Cadbury has already made it clear that it believes a combination with Hershey would be a better fit for the two companies.

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Tesco has slipped from third to fourth place in the league table of the world’s biggest retailers, The Times has learnt.

According to a worldwide study by Deloitte Touche Tohmastsu, the accountants and business advisers, Britian’s biggest grocer has been overtaken by Metro, of Germany, best known in Britain as the owner of Makro, the cash-and-carry store.

The report, provided to The Times, also confirms that, although the world’s biggest retailers have all increased their sales in the past year, two thirds suffered a hit to profits, sacrificing margins to ensure that customers kept spending.

The news comes a day before Tesco is to update the City on trading in the crucial Christmas period. It is tipped to report like-for-like sales growth of about 3% for its UK business for the six weeks to January 9. Some analysts are pressing for it to explain how an extra £100 million of vouchers for its Clubcard loyalty scheme, which were sent to members before Christmas, affected sales.